The Bank of England policymakers are under intense pressure in the lead up to an impending decision on interest-rate cuts after questions over their recent judgment.

Rates look certain to fall, but the question commentators are asking is by how much. At least 0.5% seems certain, though some are wondering whether the cut will be as much as 1%.

Coming so soon after October's emergency 0.5% cut, the move marks a dramatic shift for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as banking turmoil threatens to derail the global economy.

Previously, the MPC had kept rates on hold at 5% since April due to worries over inflation - soaring food, energy bills and oil prices - and fears of a spiral into higher wage demands.

Inflation fears were even prevalent enough for the MPC's most hard-line member to be voting for rate hikes in July and August, when the economy was in the grip of its first quarterly decline for 16 years.

The lone doomsayer, David Blanchflower, has been calling for cuts for the past year and stands gloomily vindicated by events. He expects unemployment to top two million by Christmas as the UK plunges into recession.

In a thinly-veiled attack on his colleagues last week, he said: "With hindsight, monetary policy has not been sufficiently forward-looking.

"It is not sufficient to consider the data month by month until it emerges that the UK is in recession. I believe the trend has been apparent for some time."

The latest and most severe outbreak of the crisis sparked by the collapse of Lehman Brothers has, however, shocked the MPC into action.

But just 10 days before the crisis, the committee was saying 5% rates would balance upside and downside risks, with any cut "signalling some slackening in the MPC's commitment" to meet the 2% inflation target.

Mr Blanchflower was the sole dissenter, calling for a half-cut and presciently arguing that a slowdown "might be amplified by financial institutions' responses to increased financial fragility".

IHS Global Insight economist Howard Archer said: "A year ago Blanchflower was seen as the maverick, but now he has turned into a guru."

Copyright © Press Association 2008