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House prices 'to fall another 15%'

Britain's house prices are likely to fall by another 15% before the bottom of the market is reached, it has been predicted.

Estate agent Knight Frank expects the average property to lose 30% of its value from the market's peak in late 2007.

While it does not expect the bottom to be reached until late 2009, it does suggest that sales will pick up next year.

Knight Frank expects sales to hit an all-time low towards the end of this year before recovering by the second half of 2009.

Liam Bailey, head of residential research at Knight Frank, said: "The central question for anyone who owns their own home is - when will prices stop falling?

"Our forecast suggests that we will be closing in on the bottom of the market during late 2009/early 2010.

"Prices in the UK peaked in late 2007 and have fallen sharply since that point. Our forecast suggests that we are now at least half way through the process of price falls, with around 15% of an estimated 30% peak-to-trough decline already factored into prices."

The group says some markets are experiencing very different conditions to what is usually seen.

The regional new-build sector has already seen prices fall by 50%, suggesting that values do not have much further to fall, as the "fair pricing" level is almost at hand.

At the moment, equity-rich investors are targeting distressed sales, while there are a lot of buyers ready to pounce when prices hit the floor.

Knight Frank said the housing market will take some time to recover, predicting this will not be until 2015, although there will be variation across the country.

The estate agent said the model was based on the assumption that mortgages would continue to present a conservative approach to lending following the economic slowdown.

However, the UK does not have oversupply problems like the United States and Spain, and the housing shortage problem will become more apparent with time.

David Miles, Professor of Finance at Imperial College London, predicted that house prices could fall by a further 5% to 10% before the bottom of the market was reached.

Copyright © PA Business 2008

 

 

 

 

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