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Double interest rate cut predicted

Experts have said they believe the Bank of England could cut interest rates twice before June, despite the fact the UK saw strong economic growth over the summer.

Economists believe the Bank will cut the rate by a quarter point before February, and then cut it again to 5.25% in May, amid predictions that the UK's robust economic growth will dip next year.

The latest rate cut expectations come after a big week for economic data, including official estimates that gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.8% in the third quarter, ahead of forecasts for a slowdown to 0.7%.

The UK's strong summer performance has scotched hopes for a November rate reduction.

But analysts believe the global credit crunch will see GDP suffer in 2008 and force the Bank of England to reduce rates.

The prediction comes after Ernst & Young's Item Club published its forecast for the economy, which warned that growth may slow to 2.1% in 2008 as a result of the effects of the global credit crunch.

Before the meltdown in money markets took hold over the summer, it had predicted that growth for next year would be 2.5%.

The rate cut predictions also come despite inflationary fears, with oil soaring to record highs and higher food prices expected to increase the cost of living in the UK.

Howard Archer, Global Insight economist, said a slowdown in growth will help to allay the Bank's inflationary concerns.

"At the moment the signs of a slowdown aren't strong enough to warrant a November move but a slowdown will become more evident and dilute inflationary concerns.

"If growth slows, it will ease concerns about company pricing power and wage moderation," he added.

Barclays Capital, which had been forecasting rates to stay at 5.75% for at least six months, now said it believes they will hit 5.25% by May, with a cut before February a possibility if early signs of a slowdown are seen.

Copyright © PA Business 2007

 

 

 

 

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